Sunday, April 13, 2008

Good Chase Potiential April 2nd 2008

Chase: S Central Oklahoma, North TX

Chasers: Ryan Shepard, Jon Skinner, Mark Farnik

Wed April 2nd 08

We departed to Elk City OK to stay with Skinner’s friend for a decent looking weather setup for Thursday in South OK and Northern TX. Forecasted was a short wave trough, good instability and high cape values. Mid level shear was going to be favorable, higher levels were almost over done with wind shear, and temp/dew point spread was to be about 65/75. The main concerns were the early morning convection and low level winds coming from the southwest. SPC early Thursday morning moderate risk was still out, but the tornado risk was further east due to the jet that shifted more in the OK,TX,AR,LA borders area. We decided our best bet for Thursday would be the Wichita Falls area for the Southern Cells that would develop along the dry line and in front of the Cold front. There was more than enough warm moisture coming from the south. And the cells that would move east, the right splits and right movers off that area could pick up some of the better shear environment that came from the winds shifting from southwest to more southerly winds.

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