There is a slight risk over the southern plains tomorrow, with the high level of moisture and strong layered shear, rotating super cells are possible, including isolated tornadoes and large hail. After our day 2 forecast we realized the models were showing high dew points in the 60s, and temps getting to the 70s, lets hope cloud cover doesn't screw up day time heating. Instability may be a factor but there could be at least 500 cape to support development. LI seems to be at -2, and the vorticity is neg which will be good for isolated cells. Strong SE Component! Right now we cant make a decision on a go or not until midnight models because we want to be sure we don't use that much gas to a bust. Don't want it turning into a line really fast either, strong frontal system coming!
FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SLIGHTRISK REGION DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
VERY FAVORABLE DEEP VEERING PROFILES WITH SFC-6KM BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KT WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE AN EVOLUTION FROM SUPERCELLS INTO LINE SEGMENTS
OR PERHAPS AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE BY LATE EVENING
FROM ERN NM INTO SWRN KS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE SCENARIO ABOVE.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
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