Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Forecast Sat Oct 4th 2008

Repeat of Oct 4th 2004? Skinner already put this forecast up a week ago so I thought it was time to add it to my blog now.

On sat Oct 4th 2004 9 land spout tornadoes were reported along the front range. Skinner observed one of them from 9th floor of UNC's dorms. Similar aspects are in this weekends forecast.

Sat Oct 4 2004
Upper Level Disturbance
300mb closed low
Temps 21z, mid 60s to 70s
Dew Points lower 40s
Southeasterly component 15 Kts
Dynamic forcing over front range
LI at -2 to -4
Lee-cyclogenesis causing a boundary to form
Strong Vorticity

Sat Oct 4th 2008 FC
Mid Level Disturbance
Trough may come in and cause lee-cyclogenesis
Southeasterly component 15 Kts
Dewpoints near 40s
temps mid 60s to 70s
LI Predictability too low
Vorticity- not similar, Weak
Depending on the propagation of the trough

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