Tornado Pumpkin of May 23rd

Carving by John Skinner and Ryan Shepard

Disc Storm Chasers Premier Sunday

Watch Discovery Channel Storm Chasers, Premiering Sunday at 10ET (8pm MDT)
The show could use more ratings this year!

Possible Chase Tomarrow Oct 11

There is a slight risk over the southern plains tomorrow, with the high level of moisture and strong layered shear, rotating super cells are possible, including isolated tornadoes and large hail. After our day 2 forecast we realized the models were showing high dew points in the 60s, and temps getting to the 70s, lets hope cloud cover doesn't screw up day time heating. Instability may be a factor but there could be at least 500 cape to support development. LI seems to be at -2, and the vorticity is neg which will be good for isolated cells. Strong SE Component! Right now we cant make a decision on a go or not until midnight models because we want to be sure we don't use that much gas to a bust. Don't want it turning into a line really fast either, strong frontal system coming!

FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACTUALLY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SLIGHTRISK REGION DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
VERY FAVORABLE DEEP VEERING PROFILES WITH SFC-6KM BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50KT WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ROTATING
STORMS.  GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT THERE WILL LIKELY
BE AN EVOLUTION FROM SUPERCELLS INTO LINE SEGMENTS
OR PERHAPS AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE BY LATE EVENING
FROM ERN NM INTO SWRN KS.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE SCENARIO ABOVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

Forecast Sat Oct 4th 2008

Repeat of Oct 4th 2004? Skinner already put this forecast up a week ago so I thought it was time to add it to my blog now.

On sat Oct 4th 2004 9 land spout tornadoes were reported along the front range. Skinner observed one of them from 9th floor of UNC's dorms. Similar aspects are in this weekends forecast.

Sat Oct 4 2004
Upper Level Disturbance
300mb closed low
Temps 21z, mid 60s to 70s
Dew Points lower 40s
Southeasterly component 15 Kts
Dynamic forcing over front range
LI at -2 to -4
Lee-cyclogenesis causing a boundary to form
Strong Vorticity

Sat Oct 4th 2008 FC
Mid Level Disturbance
Trough may come in and cause lee-cyclogenesis
Southeasterly component 15 Kts
Dewpoints near 40s
temps mid 60s to 70s
LI Predictability too low
Vorticity- not similar, Weak
Depending on the propagation of the trough

2008 Chase DVD Teaser!

Go to Skinner's Blog to see our Chase DVD Teaser!
It should be released beginning of next year.


http://skinnerchaser31.blogspot.com/