Tornado Trend this year compared to Normal

As you can see the normal trends on the left, and this years trend completely off the chart.

Skinner and I on KTV Channel 7 News

May 26th 2008

Waking up today at the Days Inn in Hays, KS with the whole CSWR and Discovery Crew, were headed to pratt today for a moderate risk that is for hail, and a 5% tornado risk. Going to chase the supercells before it goes MCS.

May 25th 2008

Today a bust, but im hanging out with the discovery team until tomorrow for another chase day in central ks.

May 23rd 08 Epic day in west KS

What a day! One large tornado, and one rope. I've never had to run from a tornado before, this is the first and it was driving the wrong way on the interstate along with a state trooper to get out of the path!

Chasing today in the moderate risk again

Heading out to the Moderate Risk Area

Looks like we are going to be in the North Western part of KS for initiation today and then we will chase them east into central KS.

(Crazy tornado risk today!)

GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SETUP WILL THEREFORE BECOME QUITE
VOLATILE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES INTO
THE MID EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SBCAPE-- E.G. 2000-2500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF WRN
KS AND PERHAPS A SMALL PART OF SWRN NEB -- TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DISCRETE/CYCLIC/TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 
SUPERCELLS/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST WELL INTO
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

Waking up in the risk area

Were keeping an eye on the dryline over the mountains today, waiting for something to initiate

(Tornado Risk)

As you can see there is a Moderate Risk on Day 2 (tomorrow) already, its also a great setup

(Probability)

May 8th Chase with Michael Carlson West KS

Backyard looking good this week, like Thursday

Thursday:
"MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD EXIST NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
WARM FRONT...WHERE ESELYS AT LOW-LEVELS RESULT IN LARGE/LOOPING
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  THUS...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST
NEAR AND JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE
SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED."

Going to Duncan Oklahoma

SKINNER SHUT UP!


Were hanging out at the Duncan's house in Elk City, about to go to Duncan Oklahoma. where we are looking at models and forecasting. Were going south for initiation today, we were going to go to Lawton OK. The models and tornado risked looked so good this morning, but it has gone down to a 5% and the cap is concerning. The cold front is advancing fast. There is still a Moderate risk due to the large hail risk. The dew points are now not looking good and the cloud cover needs to go away!

Tomarrow West Kansas

Chasing this 15% probability and slight risk in west Kansas tomorrow with Tony and Mike Carlson

May 6th Southwest KS Finney County

This cell was strong and had a hook on it, it remained severe for a while but never tornado warned. I ended up getting in the path of a gustanado in the gust front and dirt exploded and swirled around coming towards me giving me only a few seconds to run, I ran screaming to my car and it sandblasted my face as I didn't make it in time. It scared the hell out of me, because I was close to the meso and so I got in my car and drove out of it as fast as possible. It later became part of a line of storms, and great bend got a tornado warning for the eastern part of the line. I decided to call it a day after it went into a line.

Chase Target today: OK Panhandle/ Liberal KS

Looking at the models I'm liking the area in the Ok Panhandle. I stayed in kit carson last night so I could keep heading southeast today. Driving south I can see the dry line, with ample moisture today! High dew points! Nowcasting for me today will be John Skinner and Mike Carlson. I will keep you updated whats going on when I get wireless at times.

Skinner and I on 9 News

Wind damage in Greeley